SpaceX’s Starship seems to be the latest target to receive smallsat launch woes blame when perhaps the small lift business model should be re-examined.
Three years ago I wrote: "But it’s also possible that it doesn’t pan out. A few large rockets may be enough to satisfy almost the entire demand, putting all but a handful of providers out of business. SpaceX and RocketLab, as the first movers, almost certainly have the advantage. Blue Origin, backed by billionaire Jeff Bezos, is another strong contender. But the rest are betting on a future that may never happen."
I'm not sure anything has changed since then, other than Blue Origin failing to get off the launch pad. It has been clear for years that the trend is towards putting more satellites into bigger rockets. The pricing of these small launchers has never made sense, and the market has never been large enough to support more than a few of them. They don't have much of a future, but that shouldn't be a surprise.
Three years ago I wrote: "But it’s also possible that it doesn’t pan out. A few large rockets may be enough to satisfy almost the entire demand, putting all but a handful of providers out of business. SpaceX and RocketLab, as the first movers, almost certainly have the advantage. Blue Origin, backed by billionaire Jeff Bezos, is another strong contender. But the rest are betting on a future that may never happen."
I'm not sure anything has changed since then, other than Blue Origin failing to get off the launch pad. It has been clear for years that the trend is towards putting more satellites into bigger rockets. The pricing of these small launchers has never made sense, and the market has never been large enough to support more than a few of them. They don't have much of a future, but that shouldn't be a surprise.