Europe’s Need for Space Sovereignty: Launch
European leaders really, really, really need to up their space sovereignty. So far, they have just kept talking a big game.
Europe…buddy…we gotta talk.
We gotta talk about your space industry ambitions and whether you’re really serious about growing up, about whether it’s time for you to have your own independent space industry. You’ve said you wanted that, but I just don’t see the work going into it. You seem to be in your own world and preoccupied with many other things. The year 2024 just placed an exclamation point on your inability to get your stuff together to become all that you can be. With everything that has happened in 2025 so far, do you genuinely believe you have enough space sovereignty to weather the possibilities?
Because I don’t.
Personally, I find a market more interesting when it’s competitive. There’s more to look at. More to discuss. More possibilities. Competition can cause innovations and technological leaps. Europe’s current launch service offerings don’t hit any of those notes. Believe me when I say I’d rather see a strong European space industry presence than what’s offered currently, which is:
An extremely low annual launch cadence
Reliance on non-European launch vehicles
Reliance on a single launch service
Implementing policies that increase reliance on each of the above that undercuts European Space Sovereignty.
Hence, this talk.
European/French Launches Through the Years
In the “The Ill-Defined Space Global Orbital Launch Summary: 2024,” I noted that France (representing Europe’s best launch efforts) managed to launch the least number of rockets (three) from among the seven nations that launched that year–including Iran! Europe averaged one successful orbital launch every four months in 2024. Iran averaged one every three months.
Europe can do better than Iran.
It has access to many industries and a variety of talent with its member nations. France only launched three orbital rockets in 2023 as well. It launched slightly more in 2022. From 2018 through 2024, the trend of more launches was truncated in early 2022, highlighting the end of Europe’s access to Soyuz.
Overall, France conducted 54 launches during those six years, which seems busy compared to launches from Japan and India. However, that six-year total is far from SpaceX’s current annual launch average for the same period—64.
A Potemkin Launch Industry
Its latest launch activities call into question Europe’s seriousness in pursuing space sovereignty, as do many of the decisions leading to its decline in launches–specifically, its previous relatively easy acceptance of and reliance on Russia’s Soyuz for some profit and no apparent consideration for developing European sovereignty. Notice that 21 of the 54 launches used Soyuz (11 of those were launched from Baikonur in Kazakhstan or Vostochny in Russia). Europe and Arianespace didn’t develop Soyuz–the Soviet Union did.
I analyzed the impacts of Arianespace’s use of the Soyuz for Astralytical in late 2023 and concluded:
In hindsight, Europe’s undesirable launch state is a result of a series of shortsighted decisions. The most significant was when the EU, ESA, and Arianespace decided to rely on the Soyuz rocket for nearly half of European launches. That diverted investments from developing other European launch systems while providing a false sense of vigor in Europe’s launch industry.
Without Soyuz, Arianespace’s (and therefore Europe’s) launch total over the past six years was nearly cut in half, from 54 to 33–not even six launches per year.
Excluding Soyuz from Arianespace’s launches shows Europe’s lower annual launch cadence. It also indicates the last quarter in which the Ariane 5 was launched. There was over a year’s gap between the last Ariane 5 and the first Ariane 6 launch. In a time when its U.S. competitor, SpaceX, launches 13 to 16 Falcon 9s a month, Europe’s orbital launch activities have a lot of catching up to do.
However, there is the question of Europe’s willingness to take actions that will provide an environment that nudges rocket manufacturers to not just challenge a company like SpaceX but surpass it.
Brave talk about doing so or downplaying a competitor’s service will not accomplish that. Boeing’s CEO tried this, as did several of Arianespace’s managerial lackeys. Boeing’s Starliner fiasco and Arianespace’s current three-launch-per-year cadence are the results of talking the walk.
One Rocket=Dependency, Not Sovereignty
Europe’s latest rocket, the Ariane 6, launched in July 2024. Over seven months later, it hasn’t launched again. Perhaps by the time this analysis is published, it will have launched a second time. But the foot-dragging just seems so…antithetical to the idea of Europe’s space sovereignty. Despite the public handwringing, Europe’s administrators' actions have been unserious.
Also, putting all of Europe’s eggs in the Ariane 6 basket is unwise. It was already unwise when Europe initially selected Ariane 6 as its path to space (with no alternatives). The rationale for having just one rocket builder (an incumbent, at that) manufacture and launch just one rocket was that Europe’s market couldn’t support more than one. Just last year (2024) the European Space Agency (ESA) was still saying that in a SpaceNews interview as an argument against reusability:
“We made the choice of not being reusable with Ariane 6 exactly because of this argument. Our launch needs are so low that it wouldn’t make sense economically.”
It’s a chicken-and-egg scenario. ESA and Europe won’t build more than the exact number of rockets for an anticipated number of launches. Because they don’t expect to launch Ariane 6 that often, they also need to subsidize its launches. But Europe’s launches still cost more than the competition and don’t launch very often, driving away potential customers. That in turn, depresses Europe’s launch market, thus justifying its rationale for only having one large-capacity rocket.
It’s as if these guys have never heard of “growing a market.”
If the EU, ESA, and ArianeGroup had decided to build a reusable rocket, they would never have had to worry about building rocket bodies for a certain number of customers. If space sovereignty is the goal, then other considerations should be made instead of throwing money at ArianeGroup and hoping for the best. Enough of the Potemkin space programs!
How does Europe build that space sovereignty? That is the question, isn’t it? Adding complexity to the challenge is that it’s clear that ArianeGroup isn’t the answer. It might be part of an answer, but to rely on that organization entirely for Europe’s future launch capability isn’t wise.
Another facet is that no clear front-runner for building large European rockets exists. ESA is not facing the scenario that NASA faced when it started its Commercial Resupply Service program. There's no European space industry range of choices like NASA had when it had to pick from Orbital Sciences, SpaceX, Boeing, Sierra Nevada, and Lockheed Martin. At the time, SpaceX was considered a long shot.
ESA and Europe must find companies willing to step up and aim ahead of SpaceX, its Falcon 9, and maybe even Starship. Programs such as this are a step, but only if they lead to indigenous, more capable rockets. They need to cultivate their space industry, not just the technologies and companies but the markets. Europe has the industry, talent, and an extremely educated workforce. It’s not like it’s starting at a disadvantage.
It also has no choice if it wishes to gain European Space Sovereignty. This brings us back to the start of this conversation: Europe, do you want space sovereignty or not? Is it desirable enough that you are willing to work for it?
You walked away from the Russians in 2022 (which was the right thing to do), and it bit you. But that was relatively easy because the Falcon 9 was reliable, accessible, and cheap. It still is, but Musk has increasingly believed in his own hype and revealed his craziness. You are likely to be bitten again.
The political situation in 2025 is not something you can wish away. How nice it would have been for Elon to worry about European rockets instead of the U.S. government. Alas, that is not the reality, and both Europe and the U.S. are poorer because of the lack of competition between their launch companies.
Your history shows what happens when people don’t take threats seriously. The ability to punch back, to ensure you still have access to space, anytime, with several options, is a basis for European Space Sovereignty. If anything, today's circumstances should be boosting your resolve to provide more than lip service to the idea of space sovereignty. How seriously you pursue the idea is up to you.
But thus far your efforts have been…lacking.
There is a glimmer of hope for your industry–your spacecraft manufacturers and operators—more about them next week.
Launch trending is just a part of the picture, with more to be found in the information I’ve gathered. If you’re interested in a consultation, please contact me through LinkedIn.
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